OPPOSITION POLITICS AND THE NIGERIAN PERCEPTION

 

In a statistical representation, it would be an abnormal distributional situation should all of Nigerians support and vote President Jonathan come 2015; likewise would it be abnormal should the whole of Nigeria vote against him. However, the normal distributional scenario would be if 68.5% or (just around that figure) vote for or against him. If it falls down to between 49-59%, it would still be considerable either way but in reality, the President’s popularity as compared to 2011 the way things are right now in Nigeria cannot give him up to 70% of the votes as made believe by TAN and other groups supporting him. The reason for this shall be explained in the second part of this article, coming up later in the week.

Right now, let’s explore what the average Nigerian term or perceive as opposition.  It is quite evidenced with the many mud fights going on in our national space as we approach 2015 general elections; that Nigerians (including the politicians) do not understand what the basics of opposition politics entails. The manner at which everybody seems to be hurling bricks at each other from across the divide makes mockery of what we have made of democracy in Nigeria even after fifteen years.

In simple terms, I think it is wise enough to reiterate that there is no democracy without opposition and that any contradictions to this notion means democracy is not in place in the system.

For some Nigerians including members of the ruling PDP, the mentality is that any opposition to the government or the President is just a scheme to discredit or bring down the President because of where he is from, his religion or who is family, friends are.  This is a wrong assertion. In the real context of democracy as we have today in Nigeria, the PDP is as much an opposition to the APC just as the APC is to the PDP.

Now just before some apologists of the PDP and the President starts discrediting this article as a pro-APC article, let me quickly be clear here that it is imperative that any one opposing this PDP led government must do so strictly on issues based discuss and not based on malicious discrediting. Nobody should be allowed to hurl insults on the President or his family just because they can. The number of physical abuses of which President Jonathan has had to entertain since 2011 cannot be catalogued well enough; and in my opinion it is undeserving of him or his family to be physically subjected to insults by Nigerians no matter what. However, it becomes awkward to defend this stand when aides of the President or people sentimentally attached to his government go ghetto on the average critic of the President to deflect away perceived faults of the President in administering the Country. This surely, would bring negative acerbic attacks in retaliation.

Having said all these thus far, it is important to know that the politics of opposition in a democracy operates in a circularly causal fashion. This simply means that the idea which operates opposition politics in any existing democracy is a function of the type of politics at play in the system at that given time.

In order words, in any given political system, occurrences of a given time would usually generate sentiments amongst the people and then polarize them into for or against lines. Usually, this type of practice is seen mostly in third world countries where political parties lack prevailing driving ideologies or foundational political philosophies.  Unlike in matured democracies like the US, UK, France and Canada where accountability to the ideologues of political parties are fundamental to societal reflections, most third world countries are still drawn in the politics of basic needs which consequentially promotes violent opposition.

In this day and age, no American Presidential or British Premiership candidate would campaign on a what we call “stomach infrastructure” mantra and win.  But in Africa most especially Nigeria, campaigning on stomach infrastructure is an integral part of a serious candidate’s slogan. If you don’t promise Nigerians food or electricity during your campaign, then you might as well forget being elected, that is if the election are not at all rigged from source.

In the real context of this article, the elementary question to ask is why is it that President Jonathan is getting bashed left right and centre by the opposition in Nigeria?

We may as well seek the answer from every country where democracy is being practiced. Or better still; ask why Governors Fashola, Ajimobi, Amosun and Oshiomole are being harangued by the PDP in their respective States.

In most cases in a democracy, opposition thrives in the many gaffes of the incumbent and we can hardly say the current incumbent has not committed any gaffe since 2010. Worst still are the many aides of the President who keeps attracting insults to their principal through gross incompetence and corrupt ways. They have made the avenue of criticizing the President way more than what can be patched all together, thereby increasing the number of opposition for the President .

On the other hand, the opposition APC have not been really that far from the politics of the PDP in contrast by way of operation. But rather than condemning both parties, I think it is wise to just accept that both of them are a reflection of the politics of the average Nigerian.  Not until we can fashion out a well-entrenched, deeply sourced people oriented democratic nodes upon which we can operate by through the grassroots; parochial opposition may just stay with us for a while to come.